Mesoscale Discussion 0185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Trans Pecos and Big Bend

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162245Z - 170015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is moving out of Mexico. These storms
   may pose an isolated threat for severe hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low 60s dewpoints have advected
   westward into portions of the Trans Pecos. Storms have developed on
   the higher terrain in northern Mexico. MLCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg is
   present downstream of this ongoing convection with effective shear
   around 30 to 40 knots. RAP forecast soundings show there is still
   some inhibition across this region which may cause storms to
   continue to struggle as they drift northeastward. However, if any
   strong updrafts are able to develop, they will pose a threat for
   severe hail and damaging wind given the steep (8 C/km) mid-level
   lapse rates. No watch is expected due to the limited storm coverage
   and intensity.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29400438 29850401 30570369 30920346 31190282 31200236
               30970203 30580185 30000178 29720180 29700211 29710247
               29600266 29410276 29120282 28880313 28940342 29140385
               29400438