Mesoscale Discussion 0189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

   Areas affected...Texas Rolling Plains and Big Country

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52...

   Valid 172001Z - 172200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Elevated convection capable of large hail continues to
   move eastward across Texas Rolling Plains and into northwest Texas.
   Surface-based convection is beginning to develop south of the warm
   front. This area will be monitored for a watch expansion or possibly
   a new watch in the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent just ahead of a weak mid-level
   shortwave is overspreading the southern High Plains with warm air
   advection resulting in elevated convection across the Texas Rolling
   Plains and into northwest Texas. Marginally severe hail has been
   reported with this cluster of storms as it moved eastward across the
   Cap Rock and Rolling Plains this morning and afternoon. Falling
   mid-level heights/temperatures and surface heating have increased
   buoyancy/instability with stronger lower/mid-level winds beginning
   to arrive helping to strengthen shear. 

   These storms have acted to reinforce the warm front, although it has
   slowly lifted northward across northwest/north Texas during the day.
   Cloud cover has thinned south of the boundary helping to increase
   surface temperatures with attempts at surface-based convection
   evident on visible satellite imagery. Deeper convection has begun to
   initiate along/just south of the warm front, and there is potential
   for one or two storms to develop into supercells increasing the
   tornado/wind threat. Veering low-level flow has strengthened per
   KDYX VAD and will likely to continue to do so through the afternoon.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 03/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33900042 33989921 33869839 33329831 32579857 32289957
               31980048 32270115 32940120 33540076 33900042