Mesoscale Discussion 0204
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern
   Texas into west central/southwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191858Z - 192000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying and increasing thunderstorm development
   through 3-5 PM CDT seems likely to be accompanied by an increasing
   risk for severe weather.  A severe weather watch probably will be
   needed at some point, though timing still remains a bit unclear.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of the trailing of two compact clusters of
   thunderstorms now progressing through the Ozark Plateau, the most
   prominent attempts at deep convective development have been focused
   along the dryline advancing eastward across parts of  south central
   Oklahoma and north central Texas.  While lingering mid-level
   inhibition may still be suppressing this activty, it seems likely to
   be increasingly supported by inflow of moderately large mixed-layer
   CAPE during the next few hours.  Weak mid-level cooling should also
   gradually erode mid-level inhibition.  While low-level flow just off
   the surface has veered and weakened near the dryline, deep-layer
   shear remains strong beneath 50-70 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow, and
   the environment may still be conducive to storms capable of
   producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

   Farther east, a deeper moist boundary layer remains focused along
   the southerly 850 mb jet axis, now near/east of the Dallas-Fort
   Worth Metroplex through eastern Oklahoma.  While models suggest that
   850 mb flow will weaken as the stronger jet core shifts northeast of
   the Ozark Plateau into the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley
   through early evening, wind speeds may remain on the order of 30-40
   kt.  This may maintain sizable low-level hodographs, as lingering
   inhibition weakens and insolation contributes to increasing CAPE. 
   Moderately large CAPE already appears to be developing across much
   of northeast Texas, where a confluent zone near the low-level jet
   axis may become a focus for discrete supercell development by late
   this afternoon.  This activity could be accompanied by at least some
   potential for tornadoes, in addition to a risk for severe wind and
   locally strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Dial.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34259636 35609462 34759235 33169435 31289654 32049799
               34259636