Mesoscale Discussion 0212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192351Z - 200045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development will continue in the coming hours, and
   will pose an isolated threat for severe hail and wind with the
   strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery show developing
   thunderstorms along a cold front draped from GDJ southward to SOA.
   These storms are forming in an environment characterized by 1500 to
   2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 50 to 55 knot effective bulk shear that is
   favorable for continued development. However, radar imagery from
   KFWS shows these storms are being undercut by the cold front and
   thus are likely not surface based. Weaker forcing for ascent in this
   region is allowing an initially discrete storm mode. However,
   boundary parallel deep layer shear will favor an eventual transition
   to a linear mode in the coming hours. These factors suggest that the
   overall severe threat associated with these storms is relatively
   low, although an isolated instance of severe wind or hail can't be
   ruled out in the near term.

   ..Moore/Squitieri.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32319594 32159589 31989586 31829593 31579613 31379644
               31219678 31089708 30999743 30859795 30789831 30759865
               30729896 30719936 30769966 30819983 30959979 31189948
               31349919 31479893 31579870 31699851 31859843 32219818
               32369775 32319594