Mesoscale Discussion 0218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

   Areas affected...Northern NY...Much of VT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201847Z - 202015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts are possible within the line of
   showers moving quickly across northern NY into VT.

   DISCUSSION...Fast-moving line of showers progressing through
   northern NY has shown a modest increase in updraft depth/intensity
   over the past half hour. Recent mesoanalysis shows this line exists
   within a strong surface pressure gradient and an area of 850mb winds
   of 55-60 kt. Recent RAP soundings also show 50-55 kt winds near 1
   kft. As a result, even minor momentum transfer from the ongoing line
   of shallow showers will likely result in near severe wind gusts
   where the boundary layer is not overly stable. Boundary layer
   stability increases with eastern extent and the expectation is for
   the strong surface wind gusts to gradually diminish over the next
   hour or two as the line moves quickly eastward.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44877498 45007435 44657269 43757256 43027334 42507522
               42907673 43767549 44877498