Mesoscale Discussion 0220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

   Areas affected...Far southeast Arkansas...southwest
   Tennessee...northern Mississippi...northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230424Z - 230630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Mainly small hail, with a couple stones over 1 inch in
   diameter, will be possible with elevated storms over the next few
   hours. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete cells have recently developed and intensified
   within a low-level WAA advection regime, atop a relatively stable
   boundary layer. Modest forcing for ascent, combined with very strong
   deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear values exceeding 50 knots)
   has allowed for some of the stronger cores to become organized and
   achieve very modest mid-level rotation. Nonetheless, the ambient
   environment is weakly buoyant, with poor lapse rates throughout the
   troposphere and only modest 925-850 mb moisture driving MUCAPE
   values that barely exceed 500 J/kg. While current storm structures
   may promote hail development, the weak mid-level lapse rates and
   aforementioned buoyancy suggest that most hail will be relatively
   small in nature, though a couple stones may briefly exceed 1 inch in
   diameter in the strongest, most organized storms. 

   The very sparse and brief nature of the severe hail threat precludes
   a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33019239 34179150 35109054 35418988 35308854 35278824
               34858665 34608657 34318681 34108723 33628842 33109024
               32799135 33019239