Mesoscale Discussion 0223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

   Areas affected...southern KS...northwest into north-central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 240431Z - 240530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is forecast near northwestern OK
   between 12-2am CDT.  The risk for large hail will be the primary
   threat over northwestern OK.  The severe threat will potentially
   include severe gusts a few hours after convective initiation as
   storms grow upscale into an eastward-moving thunderstorm cluster.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a fast eastward-moving,
   mid-level shortwave trough over southeastern CO/northeastern NM. 
   RAP/NAM forecast soundings over southwest KS show 500mb temperatures
   below -19 deg C, and substantial dynamic cooling has likely occurred
   compared to earlier this evening when the 00z Dodge City sounding
   observed 15.7 deg C at 500mb.  04z surface analysis indicates a
   low-level moisture plume extends from west-central OK northwestward
   into the northeastern TX Panhandle/northwest OK.  Within this
   moisture plume, surface dewpoints range from the upper 50s along
   I-40 in OK to the lower 50s in the eastern OK Panhandle.  

   A surface confluence/frontal zone extends from immediately north of
   OKC into northwest OK and the northeastern part of the TX Panhandle.
   Along and north of this boundary is where low-level lift will
   maximize and focus a corridor for storm development later tonight. 
   Forecast soundings show substantial moistening in the midlevels
   during the 12-2am period across the northwest OK vicinity when
   mid-level forcing for ascent is forecast to be strongest.  As a
   result, storm initiation is expected near or after midnight.  The
   initial storms will likely intensify with the strongest updrafts
   capable of a severe-hail hazard.  A wind risk may accompany this
   convection as additional development occurs overnight near the OK/KS
   border.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 03/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36860037 37330006 37469714 37259667 36829651 36379656
               36049688 36350017 36860037