Mesoscale Discussion 0227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Georgia and northern South
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241719Z - 241915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few marginally severe hailstones are possible.
   Conditional threats for wind damage and a weak, brief tornado may
   exist later in the afternoon. No WW is currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has formed along a slowly northward
   progressing warm front in response to a weak mid-level wave
   upstream. These storms currently reside north of the boundary and
   are somewhat elevated. Morning regional RAOB data show mid-level
   lapse rates of around 7 C/km. Combinded with effective deep-layer
   shear of 40-50 kts will support a few organized storms that will
   primarily pose a threat for marginally severe hail. Current MUCAPE
   is fairly low, but modest mid-level cooling with time may increase
   values to 750-1000 J/kg. The overall threat for damaging wind gusts
   is presently low. However, should some upscale growth occur or the
   boundary lift northward and allow for surface-based storms a greater
   threat for wind damage would materialize. The tornado threat is
   similarly low given how weak low-level winds are. A narrow window of
   opportunity for a weak, brief tornado will be possible later in the
   afternoon when a modest increase in 850 mb winds will occur in
   conjunction with a storm or two potentially becoming surface-based
   near the boundary. Given the marginal and conditional nature of the
   severe threat, no WW is currently expected.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 03/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34118369 34638307 34808119 34407961 34097904 33577931
               33458109 33378233 33458311 33608373 33718371 34118369