Mesoscale Discussion 0235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Areas affected...East-Central KS...Central MO...Southwest IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63...

   Valid 270620Z - 270745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for severe hail will continue from far east-central
   KS across central MO and into southwest IL for the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over north-central
   OK, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across northern
   portions of southern MO into southern IL. Surface temperatures south
   of the front are generally in the mid 70s, with dewpoints in the low
   60s. Advection of this air mass northward across the frontal zone
   will provide warm and moist inflow to the ongoing elevated storms,
   likely allowing for storm persistence for the next few hours.

   Overall radar presentation of the ongoing storms has trended less
   cellular and more linear, perhaps as a consequence of the strong,
   unidirectional vertical shear. Storm motion was estimated easterly
   at 50 kt, taking the lead storm into the St. Louis area around
   0730-0800Z. Despite the linear storm structure and fast storm
   motion, the threat for damaging wind gusts will remain tempered by
   low-level stability. As such, the primary threat remains severe
   hail. Organized character of these storms will likely lead to
   greater longevity than would otherwise by anticipated as they move
   into the less-unstable airmass across east-central MO and southwest
   IL.

   ..Mosier.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39129527 39289438 39339227 39188949 38728923 38289007
               38119427 38259572 39129527