Mesoscale Discussion 0237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central and north central Oklahoma and
   southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271800Z - 272000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms should persist for the next 1-2
   hours and may pose a threat for hail and gusty winds across central
   and north central OK and southeast KS.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing across west central OK within
   a mid level confluence zone are propagating into central and north
   central OK along a MUCAPE gradient. Although these storms are rooted
   around 700 mb, MUCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg along
   with 55-60 knots of effective bulk wind shear will allow the
   strongest storms, especially those further south into central OK
   where better quality instability is located, to pose a threat for
   hail. Mid to low level lapse rates between 6.5-7 C/km (per recent
   RAP forecast soundings) and a low level dry layer above the surface
   suggest conditions are somewhat favorable for downdrafts to reach
   the surface with gusty winds.

   Although much of this activity is expected to struggle as individual
   cells propagate north into a less favorable air mass, there is a
   possibility that the southern storms that can linger into the late
   afternoon hours may strengthen and become surface based as
   instability increases later today. This will be conditional on
   whether currently elevated storms can develop a strong/deep enough
   low level cold pool to lift near surface parcels and utilize the
   better quality moisture in place across central and north central OK
   on the southeast side of the surface dryline. While this potential
   will be monitored through mid/late afternoon, no watch is currently
   expected.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35199871 35499867 35959850 36469827 36839813 36979789
               37169747 37629622 37649540 37499507 37039527 36279605
               35879632 35419677 35189737 34939786 34769841 34729857
               34879862 35199871