Mesoscale Discussion 0238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma...far northern
   Arkasnas...and southwest Missiouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272045Z - 272245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated convection is gradually increasing in coverage
   across northeast OK and the AR/MO border. This activity will move
   into southwest MO in the coming hours and will pose a threat for
   large hail as well as gusty winds. Trends will be monitored and a
   watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show gradual new thunderstorm
   development across northeast OK and along the AR/MO border. These
   storms are entering an environment with 50-60 knots of effective
   bulk shear and MUCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC RAP
   Mesosanalysis - though these storms are likely being influenced by
   roughly 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE from around the 700 mb level where the
   convection is rooted. This environment has already produced 1-1.75
   inch hail within the past hour, so will to continue to support a
   large hail risk with the strongest storms for the coming 1-2 hours.
   Additionally, 6-7 C/km low level lapse rates will continue to
   support a risk for strong winds. 

   Although the environment is supportive of convective development,
   storm longevity is uncertain and it remains unclear whether these
   storms will be able to become rooted in the boundary layer, which
   would prolong the severe risk. Trends will continue to be monitored
   and a watch may be needed if it becomes clear that storms are
   becoming surface-based.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37339556 37699509 37909446 38089389 38239318 38319263
               38149198 37859163 37439143 37179134 36819127 36619136
               36559174 36519240 36489297 36439359 36369416 36149538
               36039589 36099627 36419618 36929586 37339556