Mesoscale Discussion 0239
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Areas affected...Southern MO...Southwest IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64...

   Valid 272215Z - 272345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Hail threat continues with ongoing intense storms across
   southern MO. Downstream evolution of these storms remains uncertain,
   but watch issuance into southeast MO and southwest IL is possible if
   storms persist.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous hail reports have been received over the last
   1-2 hours from the ongoing storms that moved out of northeast OK
   into southern MO, with some reports of very large hail noted. These
   storms evolved out of initially very high-based convection across
   OK, and are being sustained by moderate instability (MUCAPE of
   1000-2000 J/kg) and sufficient effective shear (at least 40 kt) to
   support updraft rotation. 

   Similar environmental characteristics are present further east into
   southeast MO, though evolution of ongoing storms remains uncertain
   due to their generally elevated character and rather subtle
   large-scale forcing across the region. The storm that earlier
   produced significant hail over northeast OK/southwest MO has
   substantially weakened, but the storm moving into Wright County MO
   as of 22Z appears supercellular and may be close to surface based.
   This storm will pose a threat of very large hail in the short term.
   Additional strong thunderstorm development is ongoing downstream,
   and it is possible that another slightly elevated supercell or two
   will develop given the favorable environment. Watch issuance into
   portions of southeast MO and perhaps southwest IL to cover this
   possibility is possible by 23Z.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36759432 37339403 38079245 38369143 38699021 38408991
               37878969 37478977 37099096 36809243 36619416 36759432