Mesoscale Discussion 0241
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest into east-central MO...far
   western IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 280133Z - 280300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some intensification of ongoing convection is possible
   this evening. The area will continue to be monitored for possible
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, elevated convection is gradually intensifying
   from southeast KS into central MO. This is likely in response to an
   increasing low-level jet noted on recent VWPs from SGF/INX.
   Relatively steep lapse rates noted on upstream 00Z soundings across
   the central/southern Plains will continue to support moderate
   elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) through the night,
   while increasing midlevel flow will maintain effective shear of
   40-60 kt for updrafts that become rooted below around 800 mb.
   Uncertainty remains regarding the depth and organization of ongoing
   convection, but any organized structures that evolve will have the
   potential to produce large hail and perhaps locally gusty winds.
   This area will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance,
   should an uptick in storm organization occur.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38329524 38709477 39319342 39919131 39459074 38859013
               37859302 37089436 37109530 38329524