Mesoscale Discussion 0243
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Southern IA...Far Northwest
   IL...Far Northern MO...Extreme Northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280634Z - 280730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible from far southeast
   NE/northeast KS across southern IL/northern MO into northwest IL
   over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage has increased over
   the past hour or so from far southeast NE/northeast KS northeastward
   across southern IA/northern MO into northwest IL. This increase
   appears to be coincident with a modest increase in the low-level jet
   and resultant increase in warm-air advection. Environment across
   much of this region is characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates
   atop a stable boundary layer and strong deep-layer shear.

   The ongoing warm-air advection is expected to persist while
   gradually shifting northeastward. This continued lift will likely
   promote the development of additional thunderstorms while the strong
   vertical shear will support storm organization. Instability is
   modest but a few storms could be strong enough to produce severe
   hail. Current expectation is for the limited instability to temper
   severe storm coverage enough to preclude watch issuance. However,
   convective trends will be monitored closely and watch probability
   could increase if the number of organized storms becomes greater.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40459678 41499446 42449025 41598947 40909133 39769607
               40459678