Mesoscale Discussion 0244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX...southwestern through
   north-central OK...extreme southern KS.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280842Z - 281045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should move rapidly northeastward across the
   discussion area through the pre-dawn hours.  Severe hail or strong
   gusts are possible in the best-organized cells, but the threat
   appears too marginal and isolated for a watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis at 08Z showed a strengthening low
   over southeastern KS near DDC, with quasistationary frontal zone
   across parts of extreme northwestern OK and south-central
   /southeastern KS.  A Pacific front has overtaken the dryline over
   western OK and northwest TX, and was drawn from there southwestward
   across northwest TX to near FST.  As large-scale ascent spreads over
   the moistening low-level warm sector preceding the Pacific front,
   increasing convection, with widely scattered to scattered embedded
   thunderstorms, has developed just ahead of and nearly parallel to
   the front.  As of 0830Z, this activity was evident in radar
   composites, lightning data and satellite imagery from Knox County TX
   to Blaine County OK, eastward to near an SPS-CHK line.

   Modifications to regional 00Z soundings, and to the 06Z LMN
   sounding, are generally consistent with short-fused model soundings
   from RAP and HRRR across this region, showing:
   1.  A stable boundary layer with 100-200 J/kg MLCINH, underlying
   2.  The basal EML inversion, which coincides with a well-defined
   layer of dryline, 
   3.  A ribbon of roughly 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, decreasing eastward but
   still favorable for deep convection,
   4.  Very strong deep shear -- with 70-80-kt effective-shear vectors
   -- but oriented with a substantial component parallel to the zone of
   ascent.

   The latter factor appears to be influencing a messy, quasi-linear
   mode with embedded stronger cells early in the convective evolution.
   Given the CAPE/shear parameter space, the intense flow aloft, and
   the presence of that dry layer, enough parcel acceleration may occur
   through the near-surface static stability to transfer gusts
   approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits to the surface. 
   Sustained, semi-discrete cells -- whose longevity is in doubt given
   the kinematic geometry -- could offer large hail.

   Though the situation appears too marginal/isolated for a watch, one
   may become needed if convection organizes more robustly than
   currently anticipated.

   ..Edwards.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33369966 35009882 35999826 36659810 37179707 36949641
               35959635 34759728 33359866 33119947 33369966