Mesoscale Discussion 0245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Southwest/Central
   MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281205Z - 281330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Near-severe wind gusts are possible across far southeast
   KS, southwest/central MO, and northeast OK over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low near HUT in
   central KS, with a stationary front extending northeastward from
   this low to another low over central IL. A Pacific front also
   extends from the central KS low southward across central OK. A
   cluster of thunderstorms which initially developed along this front
   has moved quickly eastward and is now located over northeast OK and
   southeast KS. Despite a fast storm motion (i.e. around 55-60 kt),
   most gusts associated with this cluster have remained around 35-40
   kt. This is a result of the boundary-layer stability that was in
   place. 

   The boundary-layer stability is expected to remain in place
   downstream across southwest/central MO (as evidenced by the 12Z SGF
   sounding). As such, the trend for generally 35-45 kt gusts is
   expected to continue. There may be a small area, likely west-central
   MO, where an increased likelihood for a few stronger gusts develops
   as a result of slightly weaker MLCIN and enhanced updraft/downdraft
   circulations due to interaction with the stationary frontal zone.
   Mesoscale nature of that interaction leads to relatively low
   short-term forecast confidence. Anticipated limited spatial extent
   of the severe threat will likely preclude watch issuance. Even so,
   convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36469581 37749568 38749424 39149219 37459184 36469345
               36469581