Mesoscale Discussion 0247
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0932 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Ohio into western
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281432Z - 281600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms, occasionally intensifying
   sufficiently to produce severe hail, may persist into the 1-3 PM EDT
   time frame.  However, the severe weather potential seems likely to
   remain mostly  marginally and/or sparse enough in coverage that a
   watch will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...At least one, in perhaps a series of subtle
   perturbations rounding the crest of prominent Southestern U.S.
   mid-level ridging, may be providing support for scattered vigorous
   ongoing thunderstorm activity, just south of the Great Lakes region
   into the upper Ohio Valley.  Strongest storms are currently focused
   near/north of a 40-45 kt westerly 850 mb jet axis propagating across
   north central Ohio into western Pennsylvania, rooted within a zone
   of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection.

   Model output suggests that elevated moisture return, in the presence
   of steep mid-level lapse rates, is contributing to sizable most
   unstable CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg.  While this is based above a
   relatively cool/stable boundary layer, strong shear in the cloud
   bearing layer likely has been contributing to occasional severe
   hail.

   Similar destabilization may gradually spread eastward and
   northeastward with the 850 jet core, across the upper Ohio Valley
   through this afternoon.  However, as this occurs, the jet is
   forecast to weaken, and a substantive increase in storms capable of
   producing severe hail currently seems unlikely.

   ..Kerr/Goss.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41558294 41578122 41437950 40607871 40197952 40438021
               40378225 40498299 40608345 41208363 41558294