Mesoscale Discussion 0248
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1018 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central Illinois into central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281518Z - 281745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually increasing and intensifying thunderstorm
   development north of the Interstate 70 corridor may pose a risk for
   severe hail into early afternoon, with perhaps increasing potential
   for damaging wind gusts by the time it approaches the Indianapolis
   area by 3-4 PM EDT.  Trends will continue to be monitored for the
   possibility of a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Another low-amplitude perturbation appears in the
   process of turning northeast/east of the Mississippi River, into the
   lower Ohio Valley, around the northwestern periphery of prominent
   southeastern U.S. mid-level ridging.  Associated forcing for ascent,
   including a zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection
   appears to be supporting an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms, which
   may persist and gradually intensify through early to mid afternoon. 

   Storms are currently generally focused to the cool side of the
   surface warm frontal zone, but moisture above the front appears to
   be contributing to most unstable CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the
   presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.  Aided by strong vertical
   shear in the cloud-bearing layer, stronger storms may occasionally
   produce severe hail as they spread across the Peoria, Springfield,
   Bloomington and Decatur areas of central Illinois during the next
   few hours.

   Of primary concern, is the potential for convection to become
   increasingly rooted in closer proximity to, or within, the boundary
   layer, near the warm front, roughly southeast of Springfield through
   the Decatur vicinity, eastward into the Indianapolis area by 19-20Z.
    Although low-level hodographs across this region, through this
   time, are forecast to remain relatively modest, convection may
   gradually be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging gusts
   as low-level lapse rates steepen with boundary layer warming and
   mixing.

   ..Kerr/Goss.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   40278995 40778868 40908581 40078546 39828595 39818704
               39678861 39338972 39469030 40278995