Mesoscale Discussion 0249
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Much of Arkansas...Northeast TX...and northwest LA.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281714Z - 281915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is expected to increase into the
   afternoon with a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective activity is mostly anafrontal across
   western Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma. However, SPC
   mesoanalysis shows CINH has mostly eroded across western Arkansas as
   temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in
   the upper 60s to near 70. MLCAPE is currently around 1500 J/kg
   across this region and is expected to increase to 2000 to 2500 J/kg
   in the next 2-3 hours as temperatures and dewpoints continue to
   increase and cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the region. 

   Mid-level heights will fall across this area early this afternoon
   which will lead to increasing convective coverage along and ahead of
   the surface front from far northeast Texas across much of Arkansas.
   Effective shear of 60 to 70 knots combined with the aforementioned
   2000+ J/kg MLCAPE will support supercell structures. However,
   deep-layer flow is mostly parallel to the front which may lead to
   considerable storm interference and relatively quick linear upscale
   growth. Despite the messy storm mode, there may still be a threat
   for a couple of tornadoes given the moderately strong low-level
   shear profile (150-200 m2/s2 0-1 SRH per LZK VWP). The greatest
   tornado threat will be in the northern half of Arkansas where the
   low-level jet will be strongest, and where surface winds will remain
   more backed. Isolated supercells cannot be ruled out ahead of the
   front as the inhibition continues to erode, and anything which can
   develop in this region would likely pose a greater hail/tornado
   threat.

   ..Bentley/Goss.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   32829440 33049445 33559455 34479411 35729357 36129219
               36189102 35719063 34619095 33479163 32939254 32639355
               32689414 32829440