Mesoscale Discussion 0252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

   Valid 281956Z - 282130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in tornado watch 68
   with a main threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along a cold front in
   central Arkansas, but storm intensity has remained mostly limited.
   The 19Z LZK sounding shows very weak mid-level lapse rates (~6 C/km)
   and MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg. In addition, winds below 1km are
   less than 20 knots while effective shear is 80 knots beneath a 90 kt
   500mb jet streak. This meager thermodynamic profile combined with a
   highly sheared environment likely explains the lack of robust
   updraft growth across central Arkansas despite adequate forcing for
   pre-frontal development as parcel acceleration is not great enough
   to balance the strong shear. Some brief QLCS tornadoes will be
   possible, especially in northern Arkansas later this afternoon and
   this evening as the low-level jet strengthens, but otherwise, wind
   damage along the line will likely be the primary threat. Even the
   wind damage will likely remain isolated, especially in the southern
   half of the watch, given the weak low-level flow.

   ..Bentley.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33439335 34719289 35569273 36189238 36419157 36459054
               36478990 36288951 34759042 33409138 33389247 33439335