Mesoscale Discussion 0254
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Areas affected...Central PA into western MD/northern WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282151Z - 282315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will spread eastward into central PA
   early this evening. The strongest storms may pose a risk of
   marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts, but watch
   issuance is currently not expected.

   DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, strong thunderstorms are spreading from
   western into central PA. A general weakening trend has been noted as
   storms spread eastward, likely due to decreasing instability with
   eastward extent. However, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective
   shear of greater than 30 kt will continue to support the potential
   for some storm organization, including the threat for marginally
   severe hail, and locally strong wind gusts across portions of far
   southern PA into western MD and northern WV, where some heating has
   occurred this afternoon. At this time, it appears the coverage and
   magnitude of any severe threat appears too limited for watch
   issuance.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40567879 40537833 40477765 40157739 39797727 39667762
               39557807 39387870 39317974 39527981 39727952 40147910
               40567879