Mesoscale Discussion 0270
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of western Pennsylvania into western and
   central New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

   Valid 291821Z - 291945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for severe
   hail and strong surface gusts will overspread the Lake Ontario and
   Finger Lakes region through 3-5 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated and are gradually
   intensifying within the narrow pre-frontal axis of boundary-layer
   destabilization characterized by CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, across parts
   of western Pennsylvania into the lee of Lake Erie.  Storms are
   embedded within 50-60 kt south-southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean
   flow, which will support rapid north-northeastward storm motions.  

   At some point, as stronger mid-level forcing for ascent shifts
   across Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes region through 20-22Z,
   storms may begin to outrun the eastward progression of the more
   favorable boundary layer instability.  The latest Rapid Refresh
   suggests that relatively cool/stable surface-based air will hold
   firm near the central Pennsylvania/New York state border area. 
   However, at least weak boundary-layer destabilization appears
   possible near/north of the Finger Lakes region into the southern
   shores of Lake Ontario, where storms may continue to intensify
   through the next couple of hours.  Given the tendency for low-level
   hodographs to become mostly unidirectional as the boundary layer
   becomes unstable, large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts
   appear the primary severe hazards.

   ..Kerr.. 03/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   44547607 43517536 42337714 41487816 41547870 42657825
               43737870 44547607