Mesoscale Discussion 0271
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Virginia...extreme
   Northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292205Z - 300000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail may accompany
   convection across VA and northern NC.

   DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating and steep low-level lapse
   rates have contributed to a favorable thermodynamic environment for
   convective development across portions of VA this evening. Low-level
   confluence has established a corridor where agitated cu field
   continues to deepen and lightning is now evident from
   Henry-Charlotte County. Earlier CAMs suggested scattered
   thunderstorm activity might be more concentrated across NC, however
   satellite/radar trends support more northerly development. With
   surface temperatures in the mid 80s, sub-cloud RH is likely low
   enough to warrant some risk for isolated gusty winds with the
   strongest cores, especially given the strong deep-layer shear
   observed across this region. Will continue to monitor this region
   but activity may prove a bit too sparse to warrant a ww.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36777973 38017731 37607606 36497626 36307953 36777973