Mesoscale Discussion 0272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

   Areas affected...western Kansas...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301943Z - 302215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms producing hail, a few strong wind gusts
   and perhaps a brief/weak tornado are expected later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a cold front is gradually
   producing weak instability on the order of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE with
   axis from western KS into the TX Panhandle. East of this region,
   thick stratus is holding temperatures down creating a stable
   boundary layer into OK.

   As cooling aloft persists with the upper trough, large-scale lift
   will increase, with storm development focused along the cold front
   over southeast CO, and within the surface trough from western KS
   into west TX.

   Only a narrow zone of supercell potential (with hail and brief/weak
   tornado threat) is expected, where the steeper lapse rates overlap
   the western fringe of the cooler air mass, and where surface winds
   are backed, maximizing low-level shear. Storms are likely to form
   along the cold front over CO where moisture is meager, but gusty
   winds or small hail will be possible. As heating persists, isolated
   cells are likely from southwest KS into the TX Panhandle where
   moisture availability will be greater. Storms should become elevated
   as they travel east into the cooler air mass, but a brief supercell
   or two is possible near the temperature gradient. Here, low-level
   SRH will be favorable. Otherwise, sporadic hail will remain possible
   through evening to the east.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   34640063 34010039 33950034 33590033 33460070 33620120
               33890158 34480180 35170197 35980221 36220225 36910216
               37690199 39230185 39510117 39370066 38280030 37390062
               36480085 35460082 34970069 34640063