Mesoscale Discussion 0273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast LA...Southwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 310816Z - 311015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity possible,
   with a low probability threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a brief
   tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak low near IER in
   west-central LA, with a warm front extending eastward from this low
   to just north of HEZ (in far southwest MS) and then southeastward to
   near MOB (in far southern AL). This warm front appears coincident
   with the 64 deg F isodrosotherm, which has been gradually moving
   northward across eastern LA/southwestern MS over the past few hours.
   Surface observations at ESF and HEZ recently changed from 66/63 to
   73/69 and 69/64 to 70/67, respectively. 

   At the same time, a weak convective line has been moving through
   north-central LA at around 40 kt, staying just ahead of a cold
   front. Intensity thus far has been modest, although lightning
   flashes have been noted within the line over the last half hour.
   With the warm front gradually moving northward, the thermodynamic
   environment downstream of the convective line and cold front will
   become more supportive of surface-based storms as well as greater
   storm coverage and strength. Even as the low-level thermodynamic
   environment improves, overall instability will remain modest,
   tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. 

   Strong low/mid-level flow (40+ kt at 850 mb) supports enough
   low-level shear to promote storm organization within any more
   peristent updrafts. Consequently, there is a low probability threat
   for damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado.
   Anticipated low severe coverage currently merits low watch
   probability but convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32459179 32609062 32228995 31069022 31289273 31869255
               32459179