Mesoscale Discussion 0274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast MS...Southern AL.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311253Z - 311500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging downburst winds and brief tornadoes
   will continue across southeast MS and southern AL this morning.
   Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...12Z surface analysis places a frontal low just north of
   NMM along the central MS/AL. A warm front extends southwestward from
   this low into the western FL Panhandle and then back
   east-northeastward across southern GA. Air mass south of this warm
   front is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s,
   dewpoints in the mid 60s, and modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE
   500-800 J/kg). 12Z LIX sounding sampled this air mass well and shows
   poor lapse rates mitigating buoyancy in an otherwise warm and moist
   environment.

   Regional radar imagery shows a convective line extending from
   central AL southwestward into southwest MS ahead of a cold front
   moving through the region. Portions of this line in MS have shown
   some modest intensification over the past hour or so as a result of
   the more favorable thermodynamic environment. General expectation is
   for this convective line to continue eastward with theta-e advection
   persisting ahead of it, allowing for continued surface-based
   development. Moderate to strong low/mid-level flow will also remain
   co-located with the convective line, supporting enough low-level
   shear for some updraft organization. As such, the threat for
   damaging downburst winds and brief tornadoes will continue.
   Convective trends will be monitored throughout the morning for
   potential watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31978927 32468810 32818694 32708625 32048575 30948702
               30908914 31179047 31978927