Mesoscale Discussion 0275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1042 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

   Areas affected...far southern AL/the western half of the FL
   Panhandle/far southwestern GG

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 77...

   Valid 311542Z - 311715Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 77 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado risk appears to be maximized across southern
   portions of the WW area.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a discontinuous band of
   thunderstorms extending from near the Alabama/Georgia state line
   southwest of Atlanta, southwestward to extreme southeastern
   Mississippi, just ahead of a similarly oriented cold front advancing
   across the area.

   The strongest portion of the band extends from roughly Troy County
   AL to near Mobile, with several cells exhibiting low-level rotation
   -- both within the broken band of storms, as well as with cells
   which continue to increase ahead of the line over the Panhandle and
   into far southeast Alabama.  The two storms which appear to have the
   strongest/deepest rotational radar signatures are one crossing
   central Escambia County at this time which is embedded within the
   main band, and a second/lone cell crossing Geneva County Alabama.

   Storms over the southern portion of the watch -- where the greatest
   (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE and low-level moisture (upper
   60s to near 70 dewpoints) exist -- have shown a tendency to acquire
   rotation fairly rapidly upon corresponding increases in radar
   reflectivity.  As such, and with 0-1km shear supportive of this
   tendency for low-level rotation, tornado probability will be
   increased to 10%/ENH risk in the upcoming 1630Z Day 1 outlook
   update.

   ..Goss.. 03/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30328831 30478834 31468656 31788465 31438414 30228512
               30328831