Mesoscale Discussion 0282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Southwest Oklahoma and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022250Z - 030015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...If thunderstorms can develop/persist this evening then
   severe hail is possible. A WW is unlikely but is possible if
   coverage is greater than currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite data as of 2230Z indicates a
   moderate/strong cumulus field has formed along a cold front across
   portions of western Oklahoma southwestward to a triple point north
   of Childress, Texas. While cloud cover has blanketed much of central
   Oklahoma through much of the day, a relatively small portion of
   southwest Oklahoma has remained mostly cloud free. Temperatures
   across this area are currently in the upper 70s to low 80s and steep
   mid-level lapse are contributing to MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg.
   While the stronger deep-layer flow remains largely to the south of
   the area, effective bulk shear values of 30-40 knots may allow for
   some supercell structures, with a large hail potential, in any
   storms that do form/persist. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
   currently unlikely due to uncertainty regarding thunderstorm
   coverage/longevity.

   ..Elliott/Thompson.. 04/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35709960 36029916 36289847 36159803 35779805 35379835
               34949896 34639931 34529952 34609989 34960009 35300009
               35709960