Mesoscale Discussion 0283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country
   Regions of Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031635Z - 031830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and
   intensity across parts of central and southern Texas over the next
   couple of hours, with corresponding increase in risk for large hail
   and locally damaging winds.  A severe thunderstorm watch may be
   needed by early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
   quickly southeastward/southward across northern and central Texas --
   from near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex to the Concho Valley.  A
   moist warm sector is indicated south of the front into South Texas,
   beneath steep mid-level lapse rates.  This combined with modest
   heating through breaks in the cloud cover will support
   continued/gradual destabilization in support of thunderstorm
   development.  

   Convection continues to percolate northwest of Del Rio, mainly on
   the Mexico side of the river, while a new storm has developed right
   on the front just in Sutton County.  These two areas for initiation
   -- near the advancing front, and over the higher terrain just
   southwest of the Rio Grande -- will continue to focus convective
   development over the next 1-2 hours, though with isolated
   warm-sector development also possible a bit later this afternoon. 
   Storms developing in the anafrontal regime will quickly be undercut,
   with main risk being large hail.  However, surface-based
   multicell/supercell storms moving off the higher terrain of Mexico
   and across the river, as well as any warm-sector initiation -- will
   be accompanied by risk for locally damaging wind gusts as well.

   Despite sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, low-level
   flow across the area is relatively weak, and should remain that way
   through this afternoon.  As such, any risk for tornadoes should
   remain limited, and favor brief/weak spin-ups.  We will continue to
   monitor convective trends across the area, with potential for WW
   issuance to increase through the early afternoon hours.

   ..Goss/Grams.. 04/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31140045 31290029 31539920 31719782 30959668 30369628
               29329746 27639964 28340049 29280103 29490137 30000147
               30890123 31140045