Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Areas affected...parts of central and southern Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79...
Valid 031934Z - 032100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms continue to increase in coverage across the WW
area, but remain largely sub-severe at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front continuing
to advance southeastward/southward across central and northeastern
Texas, with storms expanding in coverage from the Edwards Plateau
and adjacent Rio Grande Valley, east into the Hill Country.
However, storms which earlier organized into a couple of supercells
near the river, have diminished in organization over the past hour
or so as they shift eastward.
Meanwhile, south of the eastward-spreading anvil debris from this
convection, stronger diurnal heating is ongoing across Deep South
Texas, with mixed-layer CAPE now in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range here
-- and westward into adjacent Mexico. Some southward increase in
convection is noted, into this heating portion of the free warm
sector, but storms thus far remain largely disorganized. Still,
given ample deep-layer shear across the region, local severe risk
continues with ongoing -- and developing -- convection.
..Goss.. 04/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29100180 29970110 30430013 30829868 30449740 29559678
28559694 28079712 27829804 27459971 29100180
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