Mesoscale Discussion 0285
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of south central/Deep South Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79...80...

   Valid 032252Z - 040015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79, 80
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of thunderstorms may be accompanied by
   increasing potential for damaging wind gusts, in addition to severe
   hail, across parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley into lower and
   middle Texas coastal areas through 7-9 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually become increasingly widespread
   across south central Texas, and appears generally associated with
   forcing for ascent  with at least one of several perturbations
   progressing through low amplitude mid-level ridging across the lower
   Rio Grande Valley through the northwestern Gulf coast.  Much of this
   is becoming undercut by a sharp southward advancing cold front.

   Strongest thunderstorm activity, including an isolated intense cell
   west-northwest of Beeville, is occurring just ahead of the front,
   where boundary-layer instability is maximized near the northern
   periphery of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer. 
    Continuing modest inflow of moderately unstable air (characterized
   by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg), and perhaps lift associated with
   warm advection centered around the 700 mb layer, may still
   contribute to some further upscale convective growth into early
   evening.   Although low-level wind fields are modest in strength,
   deep-layer shear is strong, and if this occurs, a growing and
   strengthing cold pool could be accompanied by increasing risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts eastward across coastal areas
   between Corpus Christi and Palacios.

   Otherwise, thunderstorm activity appears to be increasing on the
   edge of the stronger lower/mid tropospheric capping, across portions
   of Coahuila, to the west of Eagle Pass TX.  This may be aided by
   forcing associated with another mid-level perturbation, which could
   support another organizing convective system across the Rio Grande
   River into areas near/northwest of Laredo TX by 01-02Z.  This would
   probably also be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
   wind gusts, in addition to severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 04/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28959860 29289741 29359627 27619652 27039962 27470058
               27960155 28470191 28930035 28959860