Mesoscale Discussion 0287
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of deep south TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041118Z - 041315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may continue for the next couple of
   hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A lone supercell has recently strengthened over far
   southeastern Jim Hogg County in deep south TX. This storm is located
   along a surface boundary, with unimpeded inflow of a very moist
   low-level airmass. Recent VWP from KCRP radar shows a veering wind
   profile from the surface through mid levels, although there is a
   weakness in the flow in the 2-3-km AGL layer. Still, strong
   deep-layer shear will continue to support the potential for storm
   organization. Latest mesoanalysis also estimates that the airmass
   across deep south TX is uncapped along/south of the front. Isolated
   instances of large hail will likely be the main threat with the
   ongoing supercell as it moves slowly southeastward over the next
   couple of hours. It remains unclear if any additional convective
   development will occur over adjacent portions of northern Mexico,
   and then cross into deep south TX. Regardless, the overall severe
   threat is expected to remain very isolated, and watch issuance is
   not expected at this time.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 04/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26939790 26749739 26459727 26129719 26049760 26089823
               26459894 26749888 26979848 26939790