Mesoscale Discussion 0289
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2020

   Areas affected...South-central Virginia and north-central North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061759Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensification and coverage
   is expected through 21Z. An isolated strong wind threat is expected
   with the strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Storms moving off the Appalachian mountains across
   central to west-central Virginia are moving into an environment
   characterized by 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective bulk shear on
   the order of 30-40 knots per SPC RAP Mesoanalysis. Recent visible
   satellite imagery shows a layer of billow clouds ahead of the
   developing storms, suggesting that considerable MLCIN is likely
   still in place and limiting immediate storm growth. However, mostly
   clear to partly cloudy skies across the region will continue a
   warming and destabilizing trend through the mid afternoon hours. As
   such, gradual storm intensification is expected over the next few
   hours. Steep low level lapse rates indicative of a well-mixed
   boundary layer are already in place across the region and support
   the risk for gusty, downdraft-driven winds with the more robust
   storms. However, due to the isolated nature of stronger storms and
   slow convective evolution, no watch is expected at this time.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 04/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37178043 37727985 38167891 37847824 37327717 37047701
               36477715 36107748 35857803 35827869 36117970 36348038
               36498077 37008060 37178043