Mesoscale Discussion 0290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2020

   Areas affected...northeast South Dakota...southeast North
   Dakota...west-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070053Z - 070330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail is possible this evening
   from northeast South Dakota into west-central Minnesota. A few
   strong wind gusts may occur as well.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated cells continue to form west of the ABR area
   downstream of the steeper low-level lapse rates and where
   boundary-layer dewpoints in the lower 50s F are contributing to
   MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. The 00Z ABR sounding shows steep lapse rates
   aloft, 50 kt 0-6 km shear and elongated hodographs aloft. This
   should be enough to sustain a few strong or marginally severe cells.

   Gradual height falls/cooling aloft will continue through tonight,
   while surface convergence near the low moves east across northern SD
   and into MN by 09Z. Given increasing lift, a gradual increase in
   storm coverage is expected. Precipitable water values of 0.75" or
   less further suggests a limited severe threat.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   44789831 44589905 44899952 45329975 45749971 46389851
               46829714 46689622 46259586 45669595 45219645 44789831