Mesoscale Discussion 0292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern ND...northeastern
   SD...and central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070656Z - 070930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur through the early morning
   hours. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have gradually intensified over the
   past hour across far southeastern ND into west-central MN. This is
   probably related to the eastward translation of a 50-60 kt westerly
   mid-level jet over the Dakotas, and a slight increase in a
   southwesterly low-level jet. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates were noted
   on the 00Z ABR sounding, which is supporting around 500-1250 J/kg of
   MUCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Recent VWPs from KMPX and
   KABR show strong speed shear from the top of the low-level inversion
   to the equilibrium level. This shear will likely continue to support
   the potential for organized storms, with mainly a large hail threat
   due to their elevated nature. The overall severe risk is expected to
   remain rather isolated through the early morning, and watch issuance
   appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45649336 45549401 45669522 45639622 45509688 45249824
               45509830 45949796 46549655 46639538 46509404 46179350
               45649336