Mesoscale Discussion 0293
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Virginia and northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071807Z - 071900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms moving across southern Virginia and into
   northern North Carolina will pose an isolated wind and hail threat
   with the strongest storms over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A group of scattered thunderstorms moving off the
   eastern Appalachians has been producing small (0.25-0.5 inch) hail
   over the past hour across southern/southwest VA. A few individual
   storms have shown signs of strengthening in radar and IR satellite
   imagery within the past 15-30 minutes, likely in response to daytime
   heating/destabilization. 

   An environment characterized by 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 40-45
   knots of effective bulk shear (per SPC Mesoanalysis) will continue
   to support the potential for a few robust storms. However, as these
   storms propagate to the east/southeast they will become increasingly
   displaced from the zone of ascent to the west closer to the
   Appalachians. Because of this, most storms are expected to be
   relatively short lived, but a few stronger storms that can attain
   organized/rotating updrafts may still pose a threat for hail and/or
   strong winds in the next 1-2 hours. Due to the short and isolated
   nature of the threat, a watch will likely not be needed.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36877703 36667684 36407677 36017690 35797708 35607759
               35767848 36057952 36268008 36558055 36818074 37048077
               37608007 37417894 37107757 36877703