Mesoscale Discussion 0295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...eastern WI...northern IL/IN and western MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 072006Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce large hail
   across eastern WI near Green Bay over the next hour. Additional
   storms are expected to develop further south over the next couple of
   hours, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail and
   perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading eastward across
   southern Lower Michigan/northern Indiana this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated thunderstorms have developed north of
   the warm front. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and strong shear
   will support large hail potential in this elevated convection.

   Further south, strong warm advection is resulting in modest
   increases in boundary layer moisture south of the warm front, with
   dewpoints mainly in the mid-50s to near 60 F south of the boundary.
   Very steep lapse rates atop a weakening capping inversion and strong
   vertical shear will favor semi-discrete cells capable of large hail
   initially. Strong heating into the low and mid 70s is aiding in
   rapid erosion of this cap. As a result, expect isolated to
   widely-scattered surface-based thunderstorm development over the
   next couple of hours across southeast WI. In addition to damaging
   wind and large hail, a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially
   in the vicinity of the warm front where low level shear is enhanced.


   With time and as frontal forcing increases this evening in
   conjunction with a low level jet, convection will likely grow
   upscale into one or more bowing segments as storms shift east over
   Lake Michigan and into southern Lower Michigan toward 00z. This will
   increase potential for damaging winds across parts of southern Lower
   Michigan into northern Indiana this evening.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   41578735 41738863 42138917 42478935 42818943 43458945
               43918923 44518859 44778802 44778715 44598610 44348553
               43788472 43398446 42868438 42398447 42098466 41718515
               41558596 41578735