Mesoscale Discussion 0296
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072057Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Developing storms will pose an isolated hail risk for
   portions of southeast OH and northwest WV through 22Z this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar imagery show convective
   initiation underway across southeast OH along the periphery of a
   remnant cold pool from previous convection. Although these storms
   will begin to propagate into the cold-pool air as they mature,
   temperatures and dewpoints will likely rebound into the upper 70s
   and upper 50s (respectively) thanks to clearing skies and
   northeastward warm/moist advection. Additionally, weak, but backed
   surface winds in this region may slightly enhance low level helicity
   as well as deep layer shear and aid in storm organization in the
   near term. 

   Overall, these storms are developing within the synoptic warm sector
   with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, 40-50 knots of effective bulk
   shear and 7-8 C/km low level lapse. As such, organized convection is
   likely and will pose a threat for hail as well as strong wind.
   Discrete storm modes in the near term (likely through 22Z) will give
   way to gradual upscale growth through storm interactions. Due to the
   isolated nature of this threat, a watch is not likely at this time,
   though trends will continue to be monitored for a more widespread
   severe threat.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39618268 40138243 40288162 40288080 39677984 39177933
               38697934 38447968 38458016 38598096 38888160 39188217
               39518260 39618268