Mesoscale Discussion 0297
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of east central Iowa...southern Wisconsin and
   northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072207Z - 072330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm Watch 81 may be locally extended
   westward across parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois,
   with an additional watch issuance possible.  Thunderstorms capable
   of producing very large and damaging hail and strong wind gusts
   appear increasingly possible through 6-8 PM CDT

   DISCUSSION...Rapid new thunderstorm development is now underway
   near/northeast of Dubuque IA.  This is occurring along or just ahead
   of a surface cold front, trailing an eastward migrating surface low
   now near Milwaukee WI, as the leading edge of stronger mid-level
   cooling weakens mid-level inhibition.  This mid-level cooling is
   forecast to overspread much of the remainder of northern Illinois
   through 00-02Z, and may contribute to a continuing increase in
   convective development and upscale growth.  In the presence of
   strong deep-layer shear, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates
   and CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, supercells and organized convection
   capable of producing very large hail and strong wind gusts appear
   increasingly likely through early evening.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   42509094 42958984 43058783 41578763 40918923 40769075
               41819121 42509094