Mesoscale Discussion 0298
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0559 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central and southern lower Michigan and
   adjacent portions of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81...

   Valid 072259Z - 080030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The evolution of an organized cluster of storms appears
   likely across much of southern lower Michigan by 8-10 PM EDT.  This
   will initially be accompanied by potential for large to very large
   hail, then increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.  A
   new severe weather watch will probably be needed across the
   remainder of southern lower Michigan and perhaps adjacent portions
   of northern Indiana and Ohio within the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered vigorous thunderstorm development is now well
   underway across parts of the Great Lakes region, from the
   Wisconsin/Illinois border area across Lake Michigan into
   northwestern lower Michigan.  This appears generally focused where a
   subtle short wave impulse is beginning to suppress inhibition, on
   the nose of an initially east-northeastward advecting plume of warm
   elevated mixed-layer air.

   This mid-level cooling appears likely to continue spreading
   east-southeastward across much of the remainder of lower Michigan
   through 8-10 PM EDT.  As it does, a continued increase in
   thunderstorms and upscale growth is expected.  This will coincide
   with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, and become
   focused along a warm frontal zone, now near/north of Grand Rapids,
   Lansing and Detroit.  Aided by inflow of moderately unstable air,
   characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of
   steep lapse rates, an organizing convective system capable of
   producing severe hail and damaging winds seems probable.

   ..Kerr.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   43538351 41858285 41328447 41308666 41748773 42858778
               43248586 43718514 43538351