Mesoscale Discussion 0299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072306Z - 080030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A lone supercell is in progress across northern West
   Virginia, which is expected to persist for at least a few more
   hours, with large hail being the main threat. A few very large (2+
   inch) stones are possible. The storm may begin to gradually weaken
   as it begins to outpace the instability axis.

   DISCUSSION...A mature supercell is currently moving across Doddridge
   County, West Virginia, with a 40 kft top, and 60+ dBZ extending past
   the -20C layer. As such, severe hail may be occurring with this
   storm, with some significant severe hail possible. This supercell is
   associated with a subtle, embedded mid-level impulse which is
   currently propagating around the synoptic-scale ridge in place.
   Associated with this ridge is an EML plume and steep mid-level lapse
   rates exceeding 7 C/km, with the eastward most extent of this plume
   emanating into West Virginia. While MLCAPE has remained modest (i.e.
   500-1000 J/kg), effective bulk shear values exceeding 40 knots has
   promoted storm organization and mid-level rotation amidst cold
   temperatures aloft (-17 C at 500 mb), hence the severe hail
   potential. 

   However, the airmass gradually becomes less stable with eastward
   extend, and with nocturnal stabilization expected in the next few
   hours, a gradual weakening trend is expected, as supported by some
   of the latest high-resolution model guidance.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39307975 39127949 38937954 38767965 38677989 38778049
               38978096 39208121 39498123 39628073 39307975