Mesoscale Discussion 0302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Western and central Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 080254Z - 080500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some increase in potential for strong surface
   gusts and severe hail is possible across parts of western and
   central Pennsylvania through Midnight-2 AM EDT.  Trends are being
   monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...West-southwesterly flow around 850 mb is forecast to
   continue strengthening in excess of 40 kt across the mid/upper Ohio
   Valley through 04-06Z.  As it does, warming and moistening above the
   warm frontal zone is forecast to contribute to steepening lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates and increasing CAPE (up to 1000+ J/kg, in
   the  presence of strong vertical shear.  This may allow for
   continuing intensification and organization of the eastern flank of
   the ongoing evolving convective system, now spreading to the
   southeast of the Lake Erie.  As it does, it is possible that this
   could be accompanied by at least some increasing risk for
   potentially damaging surface gusts and severe hail across portions
   of western through central Pennsylvania.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41947921 41527806 40937621 40237660 40067771 40517973
               41488036 41947921