Mesoscale Discussion 0303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central Illiois into central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 080420Z - 080545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, including at least an isolated
   supercell or two,  may approach the Interstate 70 corridor of east
   central Illinois into central Indiana through the Midnight-2 AM CDT
   time frame.  This probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe
   hail and wind.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility of
   increasing coverage which could require a severe weather watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident in latest
   satellite imagery, in a corridor extending roughly from Decatur IL
   into the Muncie IN vicinity.  This appears on the leading edge of
   mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling slowly shifting southward
   into the lower Ohio Valley.  Given thermodynamic profiles
   characterized by steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and
   moderately large CAPE up to around 1500+ J/kg, at least renewed
   intensifying discrete thunderstorm development seems probable during
   the next few hours.  In the presence of strongly sheared, 40-50 kt
   west-northwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow, isolated supercells
   capable of producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts
   are possible.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40548839 40868656 40278531 39778603 39438808 39408943
               40548839