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Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern KY...far southern
OH...southern WV into western VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081639Z - 081815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to increase
in intensity through this afternoon. Large hail and isolated
damaging wind gusts will be the main threat associated with these
storms.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
developing ahead of a southward-advancing cold front from northern
KY/IN into far southern OH and western WV. Strong heating ahead of
the boundary has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 60s to
mid 70s with lwo 60s dewpoints across the region, resulting in
MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates
around 7-7.5 C/km and strong vertical shear, resulting in long,
straight hodographs, will favor supercells capable of large hail.
Furthermore, steepening low level lapse rates could increase
potential for damaging wind gusts. This convection will track
east/southeast through broad northwesterly flow regime, and may
spread into western VA by late afternoon/early evening.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37758320 38598494 38718494 38928471 39068434 39098377
39088315 38838231 38728184 38218042 38008014 37677999
37258007 37048043 36928093 37028149 37358229 37758320
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