Mesoscale Discussion 0309
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Areas affected...Far southeast Arkansas...central Mississippi...and
   central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081713Z - 081915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms moving out of southeast AR and into
   central MS will continue to intensify through early afternoon.
   Additionally, new storm development is likely across parts of
   central MS and AL.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar trends show a cluster of
   storms moving out of southeast AR and into central MS. Although
   storm interactions have largely limited storm growth, a gradual
   increase in storm intensity is likely through the early afternoon as
   this cluster moves into central MS where negligible MLCIN and
   1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE are noted in recent SPC Mesoanalysis. Despite
   weak low level winds, strong upper level flow has allowed for 45-55
   knots of effective bulk shear and elongated hodographs that will
   support organized convection, including discrete to semi-discrete
   modes. In this environment, these storms will pose a risk for severe
   hail and strong winds. 

   Across central AL, visible satellite imagery shows a field of
   agitated cumulus developing in response to boundary layer
   destabilization. This destabilization is being driven by modest
   northeastward low-level warm/moist advection and increasing daytime
   heating - two factors that will continue through mid afternoon.
   Although exact timing remains somewhat uncertain, convective
   initiation is expected within the next 1-2 hours. As with the AR/MS
   cluster of storms, any storms that develop in this region will pose
   a risk for hail and wind (barring destructive interactions from
   neighboring storms). A watch may be needed.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33439213 33749170 33849050 33878901 33848713 33858610
               33688558 33448535 33018527 32628514 32098510 31848525
               31598550 31548644 31538707 31548801 31608925 31759028
               31999091 32369137 32709175 32989206 33439213