Mesoscale Discussion 0311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081938Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two developing across parts of south-central
   and southeast Texas will pose a risk for hail and strong winds
   through the mid afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery show a small band of
   agitated cumulus developing along a low-level confluence axis just
   ahead of a surface trough. Satellite imagery shows that there has
   been a couple attempts at convective initiation within the past hour
   from this band with one or two lightning strikes, but lingering
   MLCIN and relatively weak forcing for ascent have hindered more
   robust convection so far. A few more attempts at initiation are
   likely within the next 30 min to one hour as inhibition is reduced
   via evaporative cooling from these convective initiation attempts.
   This process, combined with further boundary layer
   warming/destabilization, will continue to foster an environment
   favorable for sustained convection later this afternoon. A storm or
   two will likely develop between 3-5 PM CDT from this band, and given
   an environment with 2500-3000 MLCAPE and 50 knots of effective bulk
   shear, should organize into discrete storms capable of producing
   severe hail and wind. Although an isolated threat is expected, a
   watch may be needed.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29629854 30189782 30869680 31129608 31179535 30979503
               30639475 30309470 29979502 29719557 29539613 29329701
               29129829 29629854