Mesoscale Discussion 0316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Areas affected...southern Georgia...southeastern Alabama...and
   northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082241Z - 090015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Recent development southeast of WW 88 should pose a threat
   for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail through the early evening
   hours.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of clusters/linear segments were currently
   accelerating southeastward near/east of WW 88 currently and extend
   from near CSG to near MCN.  Additional, mostly sub-severe convection
   has increased downstream across the discussion area.  This
   convection was in a moderately unstable environment characterized by
   marginally strong lapse rates aloft (7-7.5 deg C/km) atop near 70F
   surface dewpoints, resulting in around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE.  Deep shear
   also supports storm organization, even though low-level shear is
   relatively weak. 

   Current thinking is that any sustained severe threat in the
   discussion area should be tied to any convection that can grow
   upscale into linear segments and produce mature cold pools.  This
   process is most likely occurring with a mature bow echo migrating
   into Chattahooche/Stewart counties in Georgia.  It is a bit less
   certain that this type of organization will materialize with
   convection near/west of ABY at the current time.  With the onset of
   nocturnal boundary layer cooling/stabilization expected over the
   next few hours, it is uncertain that any severe threat will become
   concentrated enough for a WW issuance.  Trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 04/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32538395 32608438 32178514 31668575 31368648 30968672
               30418606 30428406 30658234 31118167 31848200 32398292
               32538395