Mesoscale Discussion 0325
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020

   Areas affected...South central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091713Z - 091915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms will pose a risk for hail and
   strong winds in the coming hours. Further intensification is likely
   by early to mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of central TX shows a band of
   thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching mid-level wave
   (evident in late morning water vapor imagery). These storms are most
   likely elevated given surface-based and mixed-layer CIN on the order
   of -50 to -150 J/kg, but are taking advantage of sufficient elevated
   instability to maintain robust convection (per recent RAP forecast
   soundings). Discrete to semi-discrete modes are likely due to 45-55
   knots of line-normal effective bulk shear. As some clearing occurs
   ahead of these storms to the east through the early to mid afternoon
   hours, boundary layer mixing should begin to erode low level
   inhibition and increase the probability of surface-based storms with
   access to more buoyant low-level parcels. Additionally, continued
   forcing for ascent due to the approach of the mid-level wave should
   continue to favor an increase in storm intensity and coverage. These
   storms will primarily pose a wind and hail threat as intensification
   continues, and a watch will likely be needed by the early to mid
   afternoon hours to address this potential.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 04/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29630037 30080021 30629991 31069988 31439964 31679894
               31659838 31599763 31359718 31059685 30419684 30029719
               29759772 29509820 29419927 29440003 29630037