Mesoscale Discussion 0331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

   Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101919Z - 102045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is possible by mid afternoon across
   parts of southwest Texas. Storms that develop will pose a risk for
   large hail and strong wind. Trends will continue to be monitored and
   a watch may be needed by mid/late afternoon, although the spatial
   extent of the threat appears limited.

   DISCUSSION...Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show
   a surface low west of the Fort Stockton, TX area with a developing
   field of agitated cumulus to the south and southeast of the low.
   Inhibition in this region has been slow to erode per visible
   satellite imagery, but recent SPC Mesoanalysis suggests that MLCIN
   has eroded enough to support convective initiation in the vicinity
   of the surface low within the next 1-3 hours. Weak forcing for
   ascent will likely favor only a few storms developing, but those
   that do will mature in an environment supportive of organized
   convection within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with 40-45 knots
   of effective bulk shear. Although large hail will be the primary
   threat from any storm that develops, steep low level lapse rates
   (7-8 C/km) will support the potential for down-draft driven strong
   winds as well.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 04/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30900442 31440374 31740296 31690224 31410176 30970145
               30590156 30310197 30040264 29830336 29870378 30250428
               30900442