Mesoscale Discussion 0333
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111510Z - 111715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible over portions of central and
   north-central TX for the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation has occurred over
   western portions of north-central and central TX along the
   northeastern periphery of a locally enhanced low-level jet (shown
   well on the 15Z mesoanalysis). Northernmost storm in Shackelford
   County has intensified/organized over the past half hour or so
   amidst modest instability but strong vertical shear. Additional
   storms appear to be developing just southeast of this supercell.
   Cells within the cluster over western central TX (Hamilton and
   Coryell Counties) have also shown a strengthening trend.

   Thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable with
   northern/northeastern extent but favorable vertical shear should
   still result in an isolated hail threat as these storms and any new
   development in this region move northeastward. Current expectation
   is that the overall severe coverage will remain too low to merit
   watch issuance but convective trends are being monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 04/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32619933 33419957 34009836 33969643 32429558 31099735
               32619933